In May, I wrote an article on the pace of North Scottsdale Foreclosures and foreclosures for all of the Phoenix metro area. Since the article received so much feedback, I wanted to update you what has progressed. In May, I made a bold prediction that all of the foreclosure mess would be gone in a 1.5 years, (foreclosures never go completely away but what I am referring is foreclosures will no longer be at an elevated level or negatively affecting prices in the real estate market the way it has in past 4+ years) by the end of 2012. The reason I suggested we would return to a new normal market with less than 10K homes in Shadow Inventory (Shadow Inventory in a normal market = less than 8k of homes in distress) is because the Shadow inventory is deteriorating at a faster pace the miscalculating media intentionally overlooks for the sake of gaining readership or viewership. Yes, I am implying that the media purposely writes negative articles because they get more people to watch or read (I have research to back this up). This would not mean that all of the North Scottsdale Short Sales and North Scottsdale Foreclosures would be ﬂushed from the system because some always exist even in a normal market.
Originally, I was shocked when I found out that the increased pace of decline of the existing shadow inventory combined with the slowing pace of new distressed property owners (to reﬁll the Shadow inventory pool once others foreclose or short sale deplete supply) that Phoenix Scottsdale Real Estate would not have elevated levels of foreclosures past 2012. Yet, the media pounds the payment through late summer with the same beat. Why does the majority of the media (CNBC, AZ Republic, CNN, Fox News, Core Logic, Zillow, Realty Trac and others) all say the AZ Real Estate market is going to be negatively affected by foreclosures for several years. Here is where I find there error. they group us in with all of the national numbers that still look bleak but AZ is proving to be one of the first to reemerge from this flood of foreclosures. In May, we had 30,790 pending foreclosures(homes with a NOTS – Notice of trustee sale) and 7,200 unlisted Phoenix and North Scottsdale Bank Owned (number represents valley wide). In 2009, Pending foreclosures was once in excess of 47,000 and the unlisted Bank owned once was over 12,000.
Here is the updated numbers. The pace of Phoenix Scottsdale Shadow Inventory deterioration has steepened! The opposite of what everyone (CNBC, AZ Republic, CNN, Fox News, Core Logic, Zillow, Realty Trac ) had predicting and continues to predict. Pending Foreclosures has been reduced to under 20,000 homes (58% reduction) in Maricopa County. So where did they all go? ( My natural humor wants to reference that the media said the oil in the gulf would take years to remove. If you think what oil in the gulf, then I have made my point). The reality is that the media conveniently leaves out subtracting from the amount of short sales that are sold canceling many of the pending foreclosures. As well, the major banks have moved their focus away from foreclosing on owners with TRUE Hardships. The other reason is there are just less people left with a hardship or are willing to strategic sell that are going to short sale or foreclose. Fact in 2009, in Maricopa County, over 100,000 homeowners entered into foreclosure, with banks actually foreclosing on close to 50,000, and next year the number entering into foreclosure is likely to be under 40,000 with banks foreclosing on less than 20,000 homes in AZ.
The natural argument would be that is a lot of homes that are going to enter in to foreclosure next year and I would have to agree. But, we are lacking available inventory on the market and banks have the short sale deal ﬁgured out. So at this point, It was the massive amount of distressed inventory being dumped on the market with the anticipation of more coming that led Phoenix Scottsdale prices to decline over 60+%. This has changed and banks are just providing the inventory the current market is lacking (over supply was last year). Currently, available Scottsdale homes for sale is 19,300 – 50% less than a year ago. Last year the media predicted another HUGE wave. Simply, it did not materialized and foreclosure numbers fell. Conﬁrmed by the meeting in Sept 2011, I attended with Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Chase, Arizona once was the 4th in the US in foreclosures and now is currently 27th and falling.
The point is that the 40,000 potential foreclosures next year will NOT mean shadow inventory will increase because demand is out pacing supply so shadow inventory will continue to decrease and get below 10,000 distressed homes – the new normal and hover there for the next 2 years with the RE market appreciating while this exists!!! Case in point, Overall inventory is way low and Phoenix Scottsdale housing prices are up 6.5% on average since Sept 15, 2011, while shadow inventory sits around 20,000 homes. Prices will climb faster as shawdow inventory and our Real Estate market returns to a normal.
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