Cup Theory 3.0: Scottsdale Real Estate Predictions 2013

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Cup Theory 3.0!

Don’t we have music for that?

Cup Theory 3.0, we’re back! As predicted last year the distressed property sales will be dwindling away and as you can see, red meaning fire sale for distressed property, they really are because this represents our market today. The blue one’s are regular sales. Okay, so for instance, this time last year 34% of the sales in March last year were distressed sales. This year, guess how much?

14.5%! So, as we predicted, we were correct and consequently prices also rose. Last year we predicted prices would go up between 15-20%…

We couldn’t be more accurate than 15-20% I mean come on, right?

Well it was 18.4 so hey, we’ll take that as a win.

Wait a minute, prices in Scottsdale went up 18.4% and we predicted it?

That’s correct!


And, distressed property sales reduced by over 50%, and we were correct.


How the heck were we so correct?

You mean, where did I get my silver bullet?

Wow! Okay, now that’s a silver bullet if I ever saw one. Tell me more about this?

Well, the secret is, I know rain man.

Uh, you know Dustin Hoffman?

Dustin Hoffman? No, I know Micheal Orr!

Oh, the mathematician!

Yes, the Oxford graduate masters in mathematics he measures every piece of data that comes through the county treasurer, yes he measures MLS data…why are we not listening to this guy?

He is our modern-day rain man. So we are listening, and that’s why our predictions have been right on!

Right, but we’re not listening to the Zillow, and, do you have anything about Zillow? Yea, they were predicting that we would not bottom until 2012 and then we would go up by 1% in 2013…

Couldn’t have been more wrong.

I mean ABC, right, this is who we’re listening to, they interviewed 100 economists and they all said we wouldn’t bottom until 2013…

What actually happened?

Wroooooong, right?

That’s right.

The silver bullet over-ruled them. So they talk to here themselves talk, which leads me to your net quote.

Right, wise men talk because they have something to say, fools because they have to say something. I mean that’s what we’re talking about when we’ve got…

Zillow, ABC, media, they are fools….

Micheal Orr, I mean they’re just printing stuff, this guy’s just telling us the truth and they’re not paying attention!

We need to make our predictions for next year.

Oh, we’re gonna make another prediction?

Why not, we’ve been pretty good so far so let’s do this.

Oooooh, talk to us…I predict prices are going to rise another 15% in Scottsdale. I mean like last year…

Wow, in the next year?

In the next year, from March to March, I mean distressed properties are going to be gone by the time we get here next year, I mean, we’re seeing multiple offers all over the place, I mean I think Phoenix

They’re gonna continue to rise…

They’re gonna continue to rise. Phoenix was up over 30% , I expect it to cool off to about 20-25%…

We’ll see if we’re right!

Cup Theory3.0, Thanks again.

See ya!


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