Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for Sale Market Report for March 2012

Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for Sale Market Report for March 2012

 


You can either watch the video or read the blog. The content is the same.



Hi, Jeff Sibbach here. Talking about the Phoenix/Scottsdale Homes for Sale report March 2012.

Crazy things are happening…I mean like TEAR YOUR HAIR OUT CRAZY THINGS!

As you can tell, it’s bugging me. We’re seeing inventory drop drastically! I mean, if your out listening to the Case-Shiller index, or your out listening to CNN-Money, or worse yet, Zillow, or Realty Trac….

..they’re trying to tell you that your going to see more and more inventory. Yet, for the last year and a half, inventory has been sucked out of the market at an increasing rate! We’re down to 13,900 homes Valley-wide including: Phoenix, Scottsdale, Mesa, all over Maricopa County and a little bit of Pinal County…13,900 homes for Sale, that’s 50% less than we saw last year!

But why do people keep telling us we’re going to have more inventory? Because they are insane.(haha!) Actually, it’s logical, they sell foreclosure data, so, more foreclosures coming they say! Shocker, they want you buy their foreclosure data so they tell you more foreclosures!……….Liars!

Back to the Market Report: Let us look at some basic numbers for March 2012 relative to March 2011.

So for all areas & types we record the following:

Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for Sale Market Data:

Active Listings (excluding AWC): 13,900 versus 30,230 last year – down 53%

Pending Listings: 11,964 versus 12,923 – down 7.4% month over month – The reason it is declining is because there is nothing to buy. Not nothing but significantly less. There is only 1.8 months of Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for sale inventory.

Monthly Sales: 8,782 versus 9,952 – down 11.8% from last year. That is because we had twice the amount of Phoenix Homes for Sale Inventory last year. If you go to the store and there is nothing available to buy, you can’t buy something.

Monthly Average Sales Price for all of Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for sale per Sq. Ft.: $93.06 versus $82.13 – up 13.3% year over year. I know it will take Case-Shiller and other prices tracking indicies to catch up because it takes them 2 months to report what is happending today.

Appreciation is happening right now. So, now I hear is can prices keep going up? Well let me tell you. Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for Sale Inventory is going to stay low for the next 2 years. The reason is (drum roll please) HOPE has entered the building. They said there would be more foreclosures; They did not know HOPE was coming! When you talk to someone considering short selling and you tell them we are appreciating at 15% a year and it looks like we are going to appreciate 20% next year. The potential short seller says wow I might be back to even in 3-4 years. I can wait. That is why hope is important.

So what areas are doing best and what areas are doing worst?

Coolidge, El Mirage, Queen Creek – are up 20-30% since last year

Scottsdale Homes for sale, Chandler, Gilbert – are up 5-11% since last year

Then there are places still not doing as well such as Paradise Valley and Carefree, actually depreciating upwards to 8% since last year.

There is a bifurcation happening in the Phoenix Scottsdale homes for sale market place. There is low supply and high demand under 800K and over that things are still slow. The funny thing is those Millinon dollar sellers are trying to pitch to those buyer that the market is getting better. But we know the truth that the upper end still has lots of inventory.

Phoenix Scottsdale Foreclosures are down: The Maricopa County foreclosure statistics are: New Notices of Trustee Sale: 4,487 versus 4,584 in February – down 2.1% for the month and 21% year over year – That is people that are more than 30 days late. Trustee Deeds Recorded: 2,091 versus 2,219 in February – down 5.8% for the month and 59% year over year – sales at the court house steps are down.

I am going to make a prediction that Foreclosures are going to dry up almost contiinuely and not even be a part of the conversation next year. I am making this prediction because Shadow Inventory has decreased by 24,000 in the past twelve months and there is less than 24,000 considered shadow inventory currently. That means we will be back to normal levels of Phoenix Scottsdsale homes for sale.

If you want to buy a foreclosure you better hurry up because they are going to be gone.

Phoenix Scottsdale Homes for Sale Market Report for March 2012

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