So last year we predicted the market would go up 3-5% and on a median basis it went up 3.% and on an average basis it went up 4.3% for the overall value of Phoenix, so not bad, we were pretty good. So this year I’m going to expand my predictions a little bit, because I’m feeling that I have a three year running streak of making an accurate prediction recording on the web and making a prediction that I’m going to go out lucky. But, this year I’m going to predict that the market is going to go up 5-7% and the reason is because supply continues to be low in regards to new inventory, the existing inventory creates, means it’s balance. But, we’re not seeing a lot of new inventory come on the market because the existing people that own their house still are not “underwater”, they’re just what I call “frozen in their houses” because they can’t sell it for what they want to get out for it.
But, because this year we sold 76,000 homes, I believe we are going to sell 82,000 to 84,000 as we see lending requirements loosen, but we are also seeing lots of empty nesters and a lot of people adjusting to what their current value is. Because they were wanting for the run up to stop but now it has slowed down and now they are like “if I want to move and I’m 65 and now, I’m on a different income level, I know I have income, I want to downsize,” those people are adjusting. I believe this year we will see more of them move, they are a “sell-buy.” So prediction for this year 5-7%.
I also think that interest rates will end the year at 4 ½%, but I think it will be a slow and steady climb once we get closer to when the Fed will make a prediction that they are going to rise interest rates. In 2013, in July, it rose 1% in a three month period of time and that stumped the market. If we get this slow and steady climb I think it will actually entice buyers as they see interest rates starting to tick up, versus when it went from a period of slow and then BOOM, right up! “Now that house that I used to buy for five hundred, I can only buy for four-fifty”. I think that we’ll list probably a hundred-ten-thousand homes, but because we are going to list still a low amount it will be the worst year, the second worse year in the last fourteen years.
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