Scottsdale Real Estate-Cup Theory 4.0

Jeff, what’s with the big smile today
Cup Theory 4.0 Ash.
Oh, that’s why.
This is my favorite video of the year!
That’s right, you know what? It’s mine too.
You know, now that we are on 4.0 we should probably look back and see what 1, 2, and 3 were all about.
Absolutely, so let’s recap here. In the last few years we have talked an awful lot about foreclosures. Those are off the table.
So let’s talk about what we predicted in 2011, we predicted the turn in the market. What happened?
The market turned. You have to remember we are talking Zillow, we are talking CNBC, we are talking everyone was on that bandwagon. March, April 2011 we told them, they said the market was going down and we said the market would turn, and it did.
That’s right, so we did Cup Theory 2.0 and we predicted the market would go up 15-20% and what happened? The market median sales prices rose from 2011 to 2012 in Scottsdale by 18.3%, what do you know? Winner, winner, chicken dinner! So what happens in 2013?
In 2013 we predicted that home prices would rise 15% in Scottsdale.
Sadly, they only rose 13.5% price per square foot. So what you are saying is we had the direction right, the velocity almost right.
What do you predict, what do you have coming for us this year?
Alright, so right now we have 26,300 homes on the market and we’re selling 7,000 a month. Right? So even though our market analysis, our Rain Main came out in January and said we were headed to a “buyer’s market” and that prices looked like they could come off, that’s not what’s happening.
Not happening.
Right, I mean, this is a normal market.
Looks pretty balanced to me.
Look at MLS, we got 7,000, 3 ½ months of inventory.
And in the past a normal market has been 5-7 months of inventory.
Yeah, so we’re looking at prices this year be pretty flat with a slightly upward bias. That’s right. 3-5% Ash.
With a chance of sunshine.
A chance of sunshine, how about a chance of 300 days of sunshine. It’s a great time to buy or sell a house.
That’s right, we’ll talk to you soon.
Thank you.


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